Although violence rates in Mexico have sharply decreased, experts advise caution
MEXICO CITY—The Mexican government celebrated a dramatic drop in homicide rates on Thursday, citing the data as proof that its security measures are effective. However, experts warned that the figures might not accurately reflect the nation’s level of violence.
Mexico had 17.5 homicides per 100,000 people in 2025, the lowest figure since 2016, according to officials during President Claudia Sheinbaum’s regular press briefing.
In contrast, in 2018, when homicide rates hit their highest point in 20 years, there were 29 killings per 100,000 inhabitants.
Sheinbaum, a member of the Marxist Morena party, claimed that between September 2024, the month before she assumed office, and December 2025, the number of killings decreased by 40%.
She ascribed the decrease to a policy built on cooperation between state governors, prosecutors’ offices, security forces, and justice institutions.
However, neither the Statistics Institute, which distributes data every year that is thought to be more credible because it is based on death certificates but is published after a month-long delay, nor Mexico’s public security ministry has yet to reveal statistics on the entire 2025 homicide figures.
After then-President Felipe Calderón of the conservative PAN party launched a military-led war against drug gangs in 2006, Mexico’s homicide rate started to rise dramatically.
From that point on, the number of killings increased, reaching a high under Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s presidency (2018–2024), who supported Sheinbaum’s campaign.
In response to pressure from the United States, Sheinbaum strengthened the government’s security strategy after entering office on October 1, 2024, shifting away from López Obrador’s “hugs, not bullets” policy and giving intelligence work and interagency coordination top priority.
Homicides have decreased, according to Lisa Sánchez, director of Mexico United Against Crime, a nongovernmental organization, but she warned that not all the data needed to make meaningful comparisons is currently accessible.
The official number of missing persons has increased to more than 133,000. There are often new hidden graves discovered across the nation.
According to Sánchez, certain killings may be underreported because some violent deaths are classified under other categories, including accidents, rather than homicides, or because some missing people may have passed away.
According to security analyst David Saucedo, researchers are also debating other possible answers. According to him, there may be less violence in some regions as a result of criminal groups consolidating their power and eliminating rivals, which reduces open fighting.
In certain states, like Sinaloa, Michoacan, Jalisco, and Guanajuato, where several drug gangs operate, violence associated with organized crime persists despite the stated drop.